Building report
Building report
Applovin Corp · COMMUNICATION SERVICES
Traeva scores Applovin Corp (APP) 85 out of 100 as of Nov 13, 2026, a rating of Strong — the highest of its four bands. Its EV / EBITDA of 24.2× sits below the 31.3× its own fundamentals predict. The score measures valuation lag, trajectory, structural quality and balance-sheet risk. It describes the present rather than forecasting a share price, and is not investment advice.
Scores well across all four factors, with the price below what the fundamentals support.
Valuation gap
APP trades at 24.2× EV / EBITDA, against implied by its own fundamentals — .
The implied multiple comes from a rolling regression of this company's own multiple against its growth, margins and returns on capital — not from a peer group. A gap below it is what this model looks for. It is not a promise the market will close it.
What drives the score
How far price has drifted from what the fundamentals support. Weighted heaviest, because finding that gap is the whole point.
Whether revenue, margins, free cash flow and returns on capital are trending up or down.
Whether the business turns revenue into cash reliably rather than occasionally.
Whether the debt load leaves room to survive a bad year.
Wall Street's average price target is $656.20. Traeva's score is computed independently of it.
The full report opens the series behind every factor, the exit boundaries, and every quarterly figure the score is built from. Signing up is free and includes three complete reports.
Open the full reportHow far the price sits from what this business has actually delivered, and then three questions that often disagree with each other — the disagreement being the useful part. Every figure is shown with the inputs behind it.
Price against its own delivered record
Holding its delivered free cash flow growth of 20.0% for 10 years and discounting at 16.4%, the business works out at $263.16 to $321.16 a share. The price is $393.68. The price sits 23–50% above that range. Its actual record is 82.4%, capped at 20.0% here because sustaining more than that for a decade is very rare and projecting it would flatter the valuation.
Growth the price assumes
What has to happen for today's price to make sense?
Today's price requires free cash flow to compound at 24.7% a year for 10 years. Over its recorded history it has delivered 82.4%, so the price assumes growth well below what the business has managed so far. Sustaining 82.4% for another decade would be exceptional, so the comparison flatters the price.
Value created per dollar reinvested
Is growth worth having?
The company earns 65.7% on invested capital against a 16.4% cost of capital — a spread of 49.3%. Every dollar it reinvests creates value, so growth here is worth paying for.
Cash yield
What do you get for your money, with no model at all?
The business generates 3.4% of its market value in free cash flow each year — $3.38 for every $100 of share price. At $393.68 a share, that is about $13.32 of free cash flow per share. This needs no forecast and no model: it is cash the company produced, divided by what it costs to buy.
The risk-free rate and equity risk premium are market-wide estimates, not company facts — the premium in particular is genuinely contested, with credible estimates spanning roughly 3% to 7%. The implied growth figure is sensitive to both, which is why they are shown rather than buried. Anything marked assumed means the figure could not be measured from this company's filings.
These are measurements, not forecasts or price targets. A company can require implausible growth and still rise, or look cheap on cash flow and keep falling. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Traeva scores Applovin Corp (APP) 85 out of 100 as of Nov 13, 2026, a rating of Strong — the highest of its four bands. Its EV / EBITDA of 24.2× sits below the 31.3× its own fundamentals predict. The score measures valuation lag, trajectory, structural quality and balance-sheet risk. It describes the present rather than forecasting a share price, and is not investment advice.
Its strongest factor is trajectory at 100 out of 100, and its weakest is valuation at 53. A headline score is an average of measurements that frequently disagree, so the individual factors are more informative than the single number.
85 out of 100 places Applovin Corp in the strongest band of Traeva's coverage. Scores above 70 indicate a company measuring well across all four factors; below 50 indicates at least one material weakness — deteriorating trajectory, thin or unstable margins, balance-sheet strain, or a price well above what the fundamentals support. The score is not a probability and not a price target.
Scores are recomputed daily. Most day-to-day movement comes from price, because fundamentals only change when the company reports — roughly once a quarter. A score that moves without an earnings release has almost always moved because the share price did, not because the business changed.
Traeva does not answer that and is not a registered investment adviser. This report is a quantitative measurement of four specific factors drawn from public filings, published as research. It does not account for anything outside the financial statements, the model can be wrong, and a valuation gap can persist for years or close because fundamentals fell to meet the price rather than the price rising.
Data as of Nov 13, 2026
Browse every company →Traeva is research tooling, not financial advice. Scores are generated from public filings by a model that can be wrong. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.